BUSH EDGES KERRY IN THV PRESIDENTIAL TRACKING POLL

Arkansas is considered a battleground state in the 2004 presidential election. According to the THV / Survey Arkansas presidential poll, Arkansans are equally divided between Republican President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry, the obvious Democratic nominee.

If the election were held today, our THV Survey Arkansas poll shows Bush with 47% of the vote would win the state again, with only a slight lead over Kerry's 45%. But, with the margin of error, the two are in a statistical tie.

Lt. Gov. Win Rockefeller, who is also head of the Arkansas Republican Party, says he's encouraged by the poll results.

"And I know that our friends of loyal opposition are going to be doing their dead level best to take Arkansas back if you will, but we'll be doing our best to reinforce how the president and how the Republican Party of Arkansas are truly reflecting the views and values of everyday Arkansans," says Rockefeller.

"I'm very encouraged by it. This is the second poll I've seen where there was a statistical tie. I think we're gonna carry Arkansas for John Kerry. I feel very, very good about it," says Ron Oliver, who is chairman of the Arkansas Democratic Party.

In breaking down the numbers, President Bush leads among the youngest voters, ages 18 to 34, in Arkansas with 51%. Voters who are more than 65 years of age choose Kerry by 19 points.

"I'm not surprised by that," said Oliver. "These (older voters) are people that are very cognizant of such issues like social security and health care."

Racially, black voters support Kerry over Bush with an overwhelming 78% while Bush leads with 54% of the white vote.

The numbers shows male voters favor bush by 51%, while more women in Arkansas - 47% - say they would vote for Kerry. And geographically, voters in rural Arkansas choose Kerry with 48% to Bush's 43%. But, Bush beats Kerry by 23 points when you move to the suburbs and among urban Arkansans the two are tied at 46%.

When you look at income levels Kerry ranks highest with 53% among households making less than $40,000 a year. Bush leads by 26 points among wealthier Arkansans.

In looking at the background of voters, the poll shows regular churchgoers are more likely to support Bush while people who don't go to church favor Kerry.

"I think this shows us, and obviously our colleagues on the other side, what we have to be working on and where we have to be working," Rockefeller says.